June 2010. results

-97 pips ( -48 pips of size that I started month but only traded three days)
- 8 %

I started trading this month with bigger size, soon it all went down mainly because of that. If I count my trades in previous size which I traded the rest of this month my roller coaster ride was roughly this:
up 90
down 400
up 190
down 150
up 170


My recent trading is a mixed bag of very bad trading and good one. On some stuff I'm really proud and can see progress. Trading skill which looks to me satisfactory and promising for good results. On the other side there is my bad trading, or emotional trading. There things are as they were always. This is my current reality and I don't have any ideas but to carry forward. As I was brought to this moment by my trading experience I will continue to see what is next.

Missing on a good trade, making profit on a bad trade and good scalping

Just look at my first trade, perfect entry for further short side after retracement. It took long time and I closed seconds before the move. Sometimes I don't want to risk 5 pips and make so poor decisions.
After I guess I was angry at myself for blowing up on that opportunity and then I switched sides. Pretty much bad decision, mostly emotional trade going long in downtrend.
To rescue my bad trade came reaction to ECB tender. I quickly closed my gbp/usd in profit when it miraculously showed and shift to eur/usd which was moving. I didn't know what it was all about at that time but just entered scalping mode in fast market in which I was good. Plus I entered at correct time for new up leg and gained some more profits.

+66 pips

Oanda spread

I was a bit late on that drop through 2200.

+19 pips




I always find amazing order that can be found on small time frames. Check this bounce on 10sec chart, how it look so precise.




Oanda is amazing also. Market is in totally sensitive situation where big movements can occur and they drop spread to 0.6 pips on eur/usd.

Monday

It would be more beneficial for me to trade all leveraged up to the max then to get stuck in averaging position which I don't want to close. When I average I hope, when I can't average I can't hope so I deal with reality. Anyway bad trading today. Bad market in which it isn't easy to trade. Slightly relieved because I trimmed my -100 pips loss, but it was just luck.

-25 pips

Scalping

Today I was again all in small movements and 5sec chart. Because first two trades gave me such hard time for few minutes not moving when there is break down in play I lost confidence in short side. Retracements were shallow plus bigger spread in gbp/usd so it wasn't giving much. My bad move is circled with yellow. If I average and have break even and it's strong downtrend what am I waiting for with not getting out?! I had even a small profit for few seconds. I need to stop messing around with my exits when I average. Because it's double size I'm slower in getting out then if it's one position.
Strength of move in eur/usd surprised me. I was able to take two small scalps in direction of move and didn't want to touch it more because my mind was already today working in fade the move mode as before on gbp/usd. In the end I picked the bottom and win few more pips.
As always some good trading and some bad but I have to be satisfied with result.

+36 pips

Micro scalping

In this kind of market I don't know for a better fit. Directional trades doesn't bring any more then 5 pips and they reverse back in seconds. So quest is to take any profit when there is one on the table. Also it's easier to aim for retracements then to trade in direction of a market. I did good. Only at my last two trades there were problems. First of the two was in the loss and maybe correct way would be to take a loss but I chose average. Then in the end I was tired and simply didn't have patience to hold the trade. I believed that I could get 10 pips if it doesn't break lower but I shake myself out with only a pip of profit.

+21 half size pips

Profitable but risky

First trade had too deep stop for my kind of trading, -17 is too much for momentum continuation trade. There is no more momentum that deep behind
Second trade wasn't good one, purely reaction to being stopped and wanting to get even, I gained 7 pips on it.
Third trade, I don't know I guess it was ok. I didn't want to get stopped on it just because range is big. Then I averaged and was correct about timing. Just when things broke resistance and I was in very nice profit I was moving my take profit line deeper up it reversed so violently and I couldn't believe it. I froze and entered in bad mode - all or nothing. So I waited with double position through the news time where spread is 20 pips with stop 50 pips below my entry. I was lucky with market reaction to the news. All move was on back eur/gbp as I see it. Eur/usd didn't follow up so it was limited. I gave it a chance for much more but it didn't went that way. I closed where I closed because at the bottom of new formed range my profit would be 30 pips lighter.

Risk : reward is 0.5R in the end, not too bright. I'm not yet mentally recovered from last week's incident because this today isn't stable trading.

+56 pips

From +30 to -150

I'm not mad or angry at myself, I just couldn't help it. I have understanding for myself because I know how I operate. It's better when I can prevent this on time, but this time I didn't. It would be beautiful if I cut loss around 860 but I sometimes stuck and keep all of position on. Late attempts to go long with bigger size are understandable also.
I can say that problem is in letting go my discipline path in last few days, or lack of satisfaction with great profit of +30. I don't want to speculate, it's all just one big mess. Where I try to achieve castles in the sky with trading. There's also question would I trade at all that I don't have that questionable motivation.

-151 half size pips

Why I don't like following the news?

Bad, bad discipline with averaging big time when I'm in danger. It was all well until after gbp/usd news time at 10:30. With good news I expected that eur/gbp will lose some of the gains add to that eur/usd testing near yesterdays high I was positive that it will nose dive. So I shorted, didn't took scalp profit but let it make new high against me where I added new short. Then I didn't get out on small pullback and it made new high and I was wondering why my plan/idea wasn't working? Then I read that Spanish auction went well and that was the thing that was pushing eur/usd up. So my news was only partial and new news was the important one and I had no idea about it.
I wouldn't so easily short uptrend, I was long prior to 10:30 if I didn't have that idea based on my interpretation of news. But my interpretation is limited and add to that I'm not so well informed with news channels that I have. So it's better to not use it and interpret it but just follow the price action. Today I did opposite and it could cost me a lot.

+14 half size pips

Wednesday

Two stars for discipline because today I was thrill seeker. Trading with 4x size in chop market is just that. Sole purpose to make emotional high. Momentum that I had in recovery is over, I need to find new mental setup.
High point was +10 and low -18. In the end break even for a day.

Tuesday

Not much going on today. I positioned for downside in some after news trading with smaller size (it's a quarter if I'm trading with half size lately) but market wasn't going that way.

- 5 half size pips

How to Tell When a Market is Oversold

Here you can check MarketClub's video on longer term situation for eur/usd pair.



Markets can get oversold, but when is a market really oversold?



This is a short video that will help you to be aware of the oversold phenomenon. Provided with no registration and no charge.

Monday trading

Discipline is getting only three stars today. Again I moved stop and averaged on my first trade. Making loss of -32. Trade entry was valid as far as I can tell because it looked perfect to take out 5min stops. Bad decision was not abandoning that trade with small loss after 10min of chop. Then my usual clinging to bad trade and saving things kicked in. Like there will be no other opportunity, this is the only one.
I realized after loss that how things are developing we are going to take out high. It was little slow in the beginning with battle on eur/gbp but when they came in sync I had nice rally erasing my previous losses and putting me in black.
Then I turned to other pairs and scalped my way into nice profit trading both sides.

+42 half size pips

Friday

I'm little disappointed. I believed that now I have this discipline part in my bag forever. But it looks that I need to be reminded every day so I obey it. Also I think that discipline starts with entry. If I enter before I have some kind of signal just on anticipation it's higher probability that it will be harder for me to get out when I need to.

So I moved stop, averaged and lost. Then I was in recovery mode which also isn't best thing. All in flat, slow downtrend looking for long trade.
From loss of -35 I recovered to -3. First of all I shouldn't have any trade in the first place when things move so slow. Ten minutes for ten pips isn't pace that suits me.
But let's not be bitter at the end of great week profit wise and more importantly discipline wise. Today discipline part get's only two stars.

-3 half size pips

Serious trading

Scalping eur/usd. It didn't want to go down easy. First I had losses but then I recovered with add on to profitable trade. I'm satisfied with this scalping, maybe little to conservative without giving trades room to move. P&l first -6 then +14 = +8

First slip up was in a fact that I entered eur/jpy short without break of previous low. So I was forcing the trade in a delicate moment. Then when it didn't move in my way I didn't know what to do. Best would be to exit, but I gave it a chance because I had strong conviction that usd/jpy will break lower on important level for higher time frames. So I moved my stop for about 5 pips to above previous minor high. Well I got stopped. I was fighting with myself will I move it or not and break discipline, I decided to do it but in controlled manner because it was logical. Anyway, I didn't like that I'm moving stops.
Just as I was stopped market start drift lower, so I reshorted. Well, now when I look at chart I can see that after my entry I didn't get any movement in my direction. So It should have been very short trade. But I let it move against me. I was noticing how I'm not doing what I'm supposed to. I even averaged on idea that it's the top and that i will lose a little more or gain much. Well I was stopped on those two again. Market fell 15 pips after it. My blood was pumping true my body. P&l went from +8 to -15 and finally to -49 pips.
I was aware that I messed up and was cool enough to drop it and don't make mess bigger as I would before in those situation. My interventions against discipline cost me a lot even thou I thought that they are worth it when I made them, well they aren't.

While I was crazed up because ruined day and partially ruined discipline I noticed what was developing in eur/usd. It was yet early to tell but it happened just as I suspected that it could. Move down in eur/usd, eur/jpy and usd/jpy was over and strong reaction to other side was on.
So I entered with one trade, soon other. Run up in eur/gbp was also good indicator. Eur/usd really started to rally hard. My thoughts was that when it break morning high it's going after yesterday's that is 10 pips higher and then who knows where.

I was patient and didn't close for scalp profit nor b/e day when open profit surpassed my previous eur/jpy loss. But I wasn't in the mood to lose that hefty profit either. Gbp/usd wasn't really cooperating in the up move so when it failed on attempt to take out yesterday's high at 73 I was out in next minute. My p&l was happy going from -49 it was up +29 and +32 = +12 pips

Things were not over and I was on the look out for new leg up after retracement. I got good entry and some profit but price shaked me out, too bad. I didn't gave up and my attention was on eur/jpy which became somehow restless and I thought it could lead the move up so I entered long. It started to move and minute later I added long in eur/usd 15 pips higher then my previous exit just minutes before. Move happened but somehow limited without usd/jpy participation on the up side and without it making new high. So again I was protective of my gains and took profit. P&l moved from +12 for a day to +63 pips.
I'm satisfied with trading and my decisions and discipline even with that misstep in eur/jpy. If last two trading days discipline was five starts, today it was between three and four. In the end from -49 I finished 112 pips higher without averaging and high risks. Again it proves that I trade satisfactory when conditions and pace of market are right for me. I just need to recognize when I have that kind of setup in front of me and pass other ones.

+63 half size pips

Action Tuesday

Lot's of market action, twelve trades. I must say that I'm pleased with my discipline part in today's trading. I closed quickly non performing trades. Nice thing was also adding in my direction after third trade. I got caught in nasty spike of +30 pips, my automatic stop got triggered giving me -17. Maybe getting back in was risky trade but it worked nicely giving me biggest individual gain today. While busy with eur/jpy I missed gbp/usd move. I caught only two scalps near the bottom and third was legitimate try for new leg and quick out when it didn't follow thru.

+38 half size pips

Monday

Profitable day without much resistance to my side. Trades just moved in desired direction. One trade in the morning and other after US market open. Bit of bigger risk initiating eur/usd and eur/jpy at the same time. Closed shorts because eur/usd move wasn't convincing just seconds before usd/jpy started going down and dragging eur/jpy. Then took too small profit on the bounce play, it just wasn't fast enough to make me less nervous.

More important is the discipline side of my day. Not much going on to check how I stand with it. Only thing that I can say is that I tightened my stop on last trade to take me out quickly if the move down continue. I'm pretty much determined that discipline is more important then profit from now on.


+45 half size pips (It's now new full size but I will call it like that until the end of month)

In search for discipline

That 1min jump after 11:20 got my hopes high, but it was nothing. I shouldn't be in position but stopped out in the first place. This is tilting. Bright thing is that I made myself leave stop on that last hope trade, I wanted to move it. Unfortunately or fortunately I got stopped on bottom tick.


I will not allow myself this anymore. I simply need to learn to trade. Trading without stops, counting just on a feel isn't for me. Maybe my trading with stops will be absolutely unprofitable. I probably believe so, that's why I don't trade that way. I guess I will have to do it anyway. Maybe it will be constant bleeding. I guess that I'm at the point where that is more interesting and promising than this.

Size is going down, probably I will not put it up for a long time.

Maybe I do have profitable stretches but it's all on back of averaging and running high risk. As I talked with my trading buddy few days ago with that we can never know how good or bad do I trade. It's inconsistent and unmeasurable. This will not be easy for me, maybe it's even impossible. There is now so many years of this kind of trading that I don't know is change for me possible anymore.


Probably I will try to go down the path where discipline will become my new religion. Where exiting at preplanned point will be more valuable then profits. Only that kind of motivation, well some kind, can keep me tick.


-87 pips

Loss

As expected my high point was very brief. After wining trade in eur/jpy I stuck in gbp/usd. I was stiff, couldn't trade properly. Size added pressure and in reality I broke under it.

I don't have any conclusion about it all. If it didn't happen today it would in following days. Well I trade on the edge like every other day, add bigger size and I'm over the edge. In reality nothing new but typical and expected.

Usually after event like this I say to myself go back to scalping. Usually it correct things. Will see. Funny thing is that I never really leave scalping, but in my mind I quit thinking correctly.

-112 pips

Milestone

After my decision to end experiment of one trade a day trading at February 21. it took me 52 trading days to effectively double my account. I did have some withdrawals so it's doubled only if I count them in. I never so far had a streak like that and I always wanted it. So now I accomplished that and feel satisfied and proud about it. It's a fact that this doubling came from deep hole where my account was in February but I'll take it anyway.

Let's get back to today's trading.
New month, new size, double the one of last month. Pressure, but I need to withstand it. Last time when I tried to up my size by 50% I had big difficulty and abandoned trading with bigger size. Nevertheless my size need to grow and I need to get used to it. It's as much a task for me as controlling losses is.
Today I managed that task by entering trades with size that is now new half size. That is helping me, when I say to myself it's a half size I believe it.

My first trade I entered and immediately add new half size position because it started going in my direction. After that first scalp came third trade that wasn't going ok. I averaged because I could afford it trading in half size. Those trades gave me big profit but market didn't break low.
Thirty minutes later I participated in new leg down. Took two scalps and missed the strength of the move. Then I changed my opinion to wrong one and went long because I believed that eur/usd will not go so easy to new low below 1.2142. Then with some averaging in the end I finished it around b/e for those last three trades.

I regret mostly that I'm not able to get out of the first trade with a small loss on a premise that I will add new long trades looking for a bounce. Market is clearly going down and if I believe in a bounce that loss that is getting bigger on first trade is going to drag down my bounce profits. First trade was at 110.16 and if I closed it at 110.00 I would save much of move up needed to make a profit when in the end it came. Better then dragging that first trade in -40 pips loss. There is no problem in looking for a long but I don't have a use of that first trade going so deep in a loss. It's still hard for me to acknowledge a loss and get out.

In the end more then 80 half size pips, so it was a very profitable day especially with size double the one last week.


+43 pips