Sunday, July 6, 2008

Retrospective and readjustments

I used Sunday afternoon productively. I researched my April and May trades through my blog posts trade by trade. Basically a lot's of my scalps go in the profit immediately, going against me less than 5 pips usually. On those scalps my holding times are 1-3 minutes sometimes up to let's say 6 minutes. It's a scalp so if I see that something is happening my idea should be proved right immediately, if not it's not right idea. I had some trades that lasted 30 to 60 minutes, there were no need for close attention for them. Simple s/l and t/p would be enough. I just use my attention and drain it for no reason.

The majority of bad trades in which many of them I used averaging would get to b/e with stop of -20 without taking out the stop. The ones that gone beyond -20 were disasters with risky averaging and in best case b/e result with heavy averaging. So there is no need for me to hold any trade beyond -20. I do use small t/p so it's not idea to let every trade to go to -20 but to have it as last line of defense. I really want to take averaging out of my repertoire. Only valid case would be in -15 trade where I have good idea for average there, let original trade to -20 and add on to -5. It's big IF for that kind of averaging also. I'm not saying that I will not average from now on because I know myself. This are guidelines and I would be very happy if I could trade by them.


Also I will stop using "half size - full size" terminology. I don't trade in full size except when I average so it's not using me well. From now on size is size. I can add new trade if I want. I will gradually up my position size because of intention to allocate more capital for my trading. That is process in the development so I don't have much to say about it. Real return can easily be seen on the monthly result post in percentage terms until new size and allocation would be fully implemented.
My basic profit target is 50 pips per week and I would like to size position so those 50 pips represent 2.5 - 3 % return. It's little to big position sizing for me right now. The thing is with my half size positions I was making 50, 100 up to 170 half size pips per week in my ten profitable weeks period. Size was small so it was easier to have big weekly return. I don't know which proportion is optimal for me yet.

Scalping suits me and no matter what other opportunities be out there I can always find nice scalps and make my profit only with them. My "swing mood" as I call it brings more problems than averaging. I don't take nice scalp profits in that mood, I ride losers and worst let winners turn to losers and than average more in a losing side. Swings can develop from successful scalps and trailing stop. If I don't want to trail the stop, fine just take the profit.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Should I trade with bigger size?

Things seam today like the day before yesterday, but they weren't exactly. First I had two little trades. If I didn't exit second trade where I did I would at the bottom of the spike after.





Than I had attempt to go with break of high. Break didn't happen and I was suckered in with very slow action after my entry that it will go up and not down. Place where I add next trade was very good for it with bottom of channel and fibonacci level but I made mistake of not getting out when that setup failed.

I remembered what I was talking about with fellow traders in comment section so I was accepting risk and wasn't just emotion ruled.

I was waiting for break down to reverse but there were no acceleration at all. That was odd to me. So I stayed in long trade because it didn't start to fall like mad. Finally I reversed (on chart: -1-1) with full size position. Break started and bounced so I closed that trade and reversed with double size now up (+1+2). Than range started. I was ready again for reversing to short but it was all just watered down. There were few attempts to go up and it sure did look like bottoming. I was on the trigger to close when break down came, but when it stooped and reversed I add one full size position which I intended to use as a scalp. I did got about 5 pips on it. I wasn't sure will it go up or down and I wasn't just blindly averaging. Break up came but I didn't like it much so I just exit it before my target of 713.
Euro was pretty much weak while gbp/usd was showing nice strength and bounced nicely from the lows. So I wasn't sure in possibility of uptrend in eur/usd.
Result today is exact b/e. I didn't know it until the end




Well I don't like all of this. I risk too much, add too much. I think that there is possibility that I'm trading with to small size and leverage. Problem is that losing side is relatively too small for me money wise until it's too late. In the end when I was trading with double of full size I wasn't prepared at all to average. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. It would be to costly to average and lose. On my trade around the high I had plenty of opportunity to get out but I didn't. I was ready to bet a little. It isn't good for my style. When I'm right I'm right fast, other times I lose more times than win.
You can say that it's probably unwise to take leverage and size up without clear indication of profitability. It's all in psychology. I proved myself with 10 positive weeks that I can be profitable. Any way I had plan of allocating more money for trading purposes any way but I was waiting with that. I planned to add it gradually. Maybe I should just start trading with targeted size and not wait. I think that I would be more afraid of losses and that I wouldn't do crazy things because of it. I'm not entirely sure, I will see. My size would be 4 times bigger so it would be serious for me. Now it's only serious when I gather few averages and it's the worse time to have size in the market because than I'm against the trend and down a lot.

I will not trade any more today because I want positive week which is so far.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

My piece of action

In the morning I tried for a meltdown trade but when it immediately stop I was out. I got my piece of action after the news. It was wild later also but I got to be happy with scalp just as I like it. + 10 full size pips




Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Intoxicated

I had first little scalp in eur/usd that was ok and usual, nothing special.

After that those spikes on eur/usd were at the same time when gbp/usd fall, so action on eur/gbp going higher. When it stop I went long in gbp/usd playing for catch up of going to highs in eur/usd. Well eur/usd action got hammered down. I still was bullish on gbp/usd and it ability to hold the lows. It wasn't weak so much, it was fighting. At the same time I slowly started to go in my state of insanity totally intoxicated with trading, risks, everything. As I added more size I was more in emotionally. Nothing else exists, there is only this trade and current market action. It's make or break, all in. Probably gamblers feel like that.
After averaging in gbp/usd I bought eur/usd with full size. It was also fighting and trying to get of the lows. It was so intense. Every second counts, every tick is important. I averaged again in eur/usd again with full size, so I had 3 full size positions bleeding on me. At the lowest point I was -40 full size pips of open loss and it could get double that in a matter of second if fast brake came.
When it was going up in the end I exit by the feel and it was b/e for the day. Funny, I got my excitement and pain and in the end I was flat.

At this blog you can at least read about real trading problems. Not everything is peachy. I can't explain my behaviour. It always stun me again. I'm saying myself I will not do that again at the start of the day and I do it again. It's like they say alcoholics or addict do. It's so funny and stupid, I don't even do that to earn money but not to lose money.

Now while I'm writing this market is 50 pips up from my exit.

I don't have answers only questions.



Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Just news scalp

Scalp for the sake of scalping when the news spread came back down. +3 pips