May 2009. results

+ 23 pips

+4%

This month was crazy struggle. I had problems trading with too small size and problems with being scared of bigger size. I have also problem when I approach near the break even level for the whole year, I get immediately back down in the hole.
In my positive days I win around 200 full size pips and in my negative days I lost around 180 pips. My losing days are big -80, -60, -40. Not all winning days are win with good trading. Sometimes senseless averaging works. Only thing that is making me to go on and not get insane are days when I trade exactly as I want. With reasonable loss points, clear game plan and understanding what are the reasons to take the trade. On my bad days I don't know what to do, I can see that there is action so I fly in usually going opposite of what I should. I don't cut losses and I let them go so much against me without any opportunity to came out positive. Well it's a miracle that I'm in the end positive for the month. Or, I'm doing at least something good. So those well played days are potential that I see in myself and why I keep pushing. Every very bad day have a point where it's opportune to just quit and try not to hold losers and finish with some reasonable loss. I lose control and do what I did hundreds of times, but now it's working less and less. Now I trade from the start with bigger amounts so I don't have enough margin to average hard like before. That is exact reason why I'm not putting more money into account.
Also I struggle with too small size because I let winners turn into bad losers because profit was never big enough. One time I had in the start of the day unrealized profit of 18 half size pips, it wasn't enough to take it. I finished the day at -166 half size pips. Emotional trading at it's maximum.

Swings from 50 pips up for the month down to -40 for a month next day. Then straight climb to 80 over several winning days, then back down to 20, climb to 50, back to 20.

Same old story

I don't know why but it accelerated. Swings between my good trading and extremely bad are now every few days. In last 2-3 weeks I had 3 catastrophic days. This week two of them. At those days my reason goes through the window. Why did I today fight the trend and yesterday or day before I wasn't, or I was conscious of how costly it can be. More importantly why didn't I change sides, or throw down the towel?

The reality is that sometimes I trade because I want to make some good trade because I can see opportunity for it, other times my attention is on the money. Guess which days are mini catastrophe? When I worry about money no loss is acceptable and norm is I'm doing opposite of what is normal to do in trading situation.

Trading was with various sizes on both accounts.
Actual loss today doesn't represent how bad it was because I was 40 pips more in the red 10 minutes before my last exit. Finally for the day I'm at -35 full size pips.

Getting used to full size

Trading with full size is making me nervous, but I want to get used to it so I try. First trade was picking top and I didn't like it immediately after I entered, so I closed it and I'm not sorry even if it was good. When I got nice spike in my direction I was more then happy to cash in second eur/usd trade. Usd/jpy is slow and scary pair for me. I was already enough stressed out for keeping it longer.
+20 pips

Patience

I was late in the trade and got bad fill. It was against me at first but the gbp was strong so it bounced back. Eur/gbp was getting weak but it manifested as eur weakness and not so much as gbp strength. I was patient for two hours and in the end I took profit because I didn't want to risk with another wave down because profit in pips wasn't so big for two hour trade. Trade was 2/3 of the size.
+18 full size pips

Doing things that I'm no good at

I trapped myself with small positions. I was trading only 1/3 size and then it's so easy to add and losses don't hurt in the start. I had valid reason to stay in the trades between 9 and 10 a.m. but I forget that I will not go so easily out if and when things turn again against me. That's why I always got to get reminded with losses like this that I need to scalp because I'm not good at other things. I'm slow to responding to danger if I'm in the losing trades so long, my judgment get clouded and I make mistake after mistake.
-62 pips

Standard & Poor downgraded UK

Standard & Poor downgraded UK outlook from stable to negative and we got this market action. Notice that it happened six minutes before usual gbp news time, so many traders could be in the trades. When I trade I regularly pull stops 100 or maybe more pips away from the market if it's near my stop level and I'm not going to take it. I just drag red line of stop on Oanda chart somewhere "safe". There was 70 pips drop in first minute, two minutes of indecision or getting what is going on and than 120 pips down in next two minutes. All before news time, drop of 200 pips.
Every year there are few occasions like this. In day to day trading we get used to what is normal and forget about this and ignore it because it's rare enough. Well is it? So next time when I move my stop I'm taking a slight chance to experience something similar.

I didn't want to trade today, I'm little burned out. Well maybe sixth sense kept me out.

Nothing is working as I think it will

It's hard to find nice trade that I like, than I stumble who knows how in some trade and stick to it. I shorted gbp pair after news but momentum stalled. Usd/jpy was getting weak also so I figured maybe some jpy strength will come in. I was like forever in that trade mostly in a loss. Finally I got out before other gbp news, but spread never got widen. Later is it began to drop. Positions were 1/3 size.

Eur/jpy was just oposite idea. When it looked to me that there will be no jpy strength I got long eur/jpy around support. Idea was that usd/jpy will bounce back and eur/usd will try again to test high. It wasn't working also, now jpy was getting strong. I averaged because all pairs bounced but it took some time to work. To me it looked like it will not work, but you know me hardest thing in the world is to exit in a loss.
Well eur got strong and fly up. I guess that I took profit when I saw more than 20 pips in the bag. The thing is usd/jpy didn't get stronger so I feared that this will not last in eur/jpy, even if eur was that strong. Now when I write that's exactly what is going on. Eur/usd is strong but eur/jpy is back down. Eur/jpy position sizes were 1/2.

It looks to me that nothing is working as I think it will. I can't find nice scalp trades because pairs are so volatile. I can't complain too much because in the end somehow I finished positive.
+26 full size pips

Naive trading

I'm happy that I'm positive. I exit my first gbp/usd in a loss seconds to news. Good thing that it run up there because there was possibility of me riding into the news with that trade. Why? Just because it was in a loss. After news, without any big impact gbp/usd start to move slowly up. So this was as I call it for myself naive trade, it means that it look to me so obvious that it can't be like that. It usually is, but I have hard time taking those obvious trades. I took the profit because for some reason it didn't look to me that it will run through 500 at once, and I have a loss to cover from earlier trade and nice profit to book.
Later I was really late in jpy strength all over the board. I was looking at the chart while it moved like 30 pips from the moment I noticed sudden jpy strength. I could wait a little more, but those 9 pips of 1/3 size looked sweet because jpy stopped and I was thinking that this is right time to big jumps and not gentle moves, so I didn't believe it any more.
Gbp/usd trades with 2/3 size, gbp/jpy with 1/3.
+17 full size pips

USD/JPY

Still struggling in a clash between trying to trade full size so I don't push for excessive profit as I do with half size and refusing to get out in the loss but trying to average down. So this are two charts of the same thing trading full size on main account and subaccount. On thing that is important to remember is that fading the trend is o.k if it's done on extreme. First trade on first chart was a short 8 pips lower then the high minute ago. It looks like a reversal at that time, but it's trouble because it's 8 pips retracement also. Second thing to learn is at my first trade on second chart. I had 8-10 pips profit in next few minutes but I didn't take them. I was waiting for both open positions to make reversal and go into profit. That way I risked a lot if things turn. Which they did, but luckily I got second chance.
+23 full size pips

Addiction

I think that I'm addicted to heighten emotions that some trading situation provide for me. It's like addiction to danger if you are riding the bike at top speed or jumping out of airplane. I'm to much chicken to do any of those, so I compensate with trading. I can't tell you what a joy is that negative emotion when market is going against you and you add one more position with idea that it will nail low. Hope that it will turn and go in your direction is sooooo good. The best of course is when you have some market indication on your side so everything isn't just a pipe dream. Then greed and big eyes come out. Not only that you will recover but you will make a killing. So full leverage right on. Good thing that Oanda doesn't provide 1:100 leverage because it would certainly give new layer of those high emotions.

First trade was nice scalp for picking the low, it's totally valid trade. Later I made mistake waiting too much and then going long at the top looking for a break out. It didn't work and addiction sequence began. Trades were 1/3 size, except last one on subaccount with 2/3 size.

Too bad that riding profits doesn't provide so much emotional pleasure as getting back from the hole.

+18 full size pips

I'm not for swing trading

At least not if I'm sitting in front of the screen. I based this trade on assumption that lows on 3H chart will not get broken so easily in rangy day. My stop on 1/3 size was at 30 pips. It looked like it will be touched, but it bounced back. When things started to get soft around 5100 scalper in me took the profit of 20 pips. I don't know what will come later, I still believe that it will go up to the top of the morning range, but now it's over. Who knows maybe it will hoover around here waiting for news. Better for me to scalp.
+7 full size pips

Gambler

I don't gamble in my life in casino or online, I just don't like it. I've been under impression that trading is for me more like work endeavor. That means that all my risky trading I don't consider as gambling but work/trading. Well after yesterdays blow up I come in today and go against trend, then "can't" stop myself but I average and hold until I get profit. It's essence of gambling, doing something just because of money and thrill and counting on luck. Luck??!!
It's so fine line between trading and gambling it's almost invisible. I for sure don't want to gamble consciously, that is good. But apparently I've been doing a lot of gambling pretending that it's trading.
Gambling profits +18 full size pips.

Update, just one quick scalp in usd/jpy +9 full size pips, +27 pips for a day.
I've been thinking about gambling and my current thoughts are that I should start look at trading as kind of gamble. With that I will have losses on my mind more then now, maybe little less denial.

Mistakes

I've started to make ugly mistakes. I don't judge myself on mistakes made after first big one because they are reasonable because they are made on heighten emotions. I think that my biggest mistake is trading with too small size (again). So I didn't close my profitable trade and I let it go full length back against me. The thing is that I felt that it just isn't enough profit and I can't do that.
After it I averaged around the same price expecting to get out if it's not working immediately, well I didn't. After I had several occasions to close it in profit or b/e but I wanted bigger profit. Finally I close it in a loss of -12 full size pips. In next minute it fall back so I shorted again, now with full size, pure emotions desperate trade. I lost on that one also -14 pips.
Again, mistakes made on heighten emotions is something that I can't blame myself it's just as it is. But not closing position with 17 pips of profit because it's half size and that is less that 10 full size pips, even if I know that there is support around there is wrong. So I think that I should up my size and trade with full size or not trade at all if I can't stand the size.
-26 full size pips

update

more losses later, -83 full size pips total for a day

Frog in boiling water

I for sure know how to get carried away. Now I'm trading 1:40 leverage like every day. For me it's especially hard to throw down the towel when market is slow and I wouldn't like to take other side, when it looks like it will turn any moment. I'm like frog in slowly boiling water as the legend says. It's so slow going against me and I would get cooked before I jump out. When turn finally comes I can't stand retracements once I'm in the profit. I can't say I like it all but it's how it is right now. Numbers are 1/2 size, average 1/2 size plus one more average with full size from subaccount. In the end +10 full size pips.

Bad edition of me

First of all I don't know why did I short eur/usd. Maybe I didn't like idea that I didn't catch that preceding uptrend and I was watching it. So now I was forcing the trade. I didn't see any reason that it's going down it was just my idea that selling could start. After I add another short in eur/jpy from that point it was usual averaging autopilot.
Interesting thing is when I start bad because of wrong reasons I'm much more open to trade really bad. When I see something and trade it and it goes against me it's easier to take a loss. But when I trade from some random idea that I want to happen then if it's not working I for certain will not take loss when I should take.
Eur/usd was with 1/2 size, first two eur/jpy with 1/3 and third 2/3. Max open loss was bigger then -50 full size pips.
Only bright spot was that I was looking eur/jpy to break down and had target of 132 so I wanted to make something in this mess not just take b/e, when it didn't at critical moment I got out.
-3 full size pips

Breaking to new high

Few interesting things to say. My first trade was a mistake, you see that I gain few pips on it but I miss clicked, I wanted to short there. Well what can I say, I didn't believe that gbp/usd will break to the new high. I usually don't believe in such situations, some contrarian bias in me. Well at least I'm not stubborn as I was years ago, so when it did brake important daily high I was in long to ride the breakout momentum. It was pretty much usual how it was moving until it broke 5100 mark. That 5100 was resistance and it wasn't so easy to go through it, but when it finally capitulate I was expecting real surge up. It didn't happen, for me that meant that it's not only figure resistance there but some real selling that is going against buyers. That's why I closed my longs. I'm trading micro time frame and I can't stay in big retracements how ever powerful underling trend is.
Other interesting thing is that now when I have won and gained some nice profit for my kind of trading I enter in a state where I don't want to lose any of it. Well then it's pretty dangerous to trade from that point. If I enter some trade and somehow it turns against me I will not exit. I will not let any of my profits. That way I could start averaging, moving stops whatever, just to keep things as they are never mind what is going on in unrealised p&l at that moment. So it doesn't matter are there some nice opportunities in the market, better for me to call it a day from a risk standpoint. It really doesn't matter how much did I earn in profit is it 5 or 25 pips, when I hit state that I'm not willing to risk just stop trading.
Gbp/usd trades were with 1/3 of size, +13 full size pips.

Nice gain

Second entry didn't work out in the start but market wasn't showing any real strength so I kept them both. I had on few occasions about 10 pips for joined position and it was bouncing up and down in the range. I decided let's work a little on holding winning trades. At the time of exit there wasn't some big reason for it but risk reward wasn't any more on my side. Before there was at risk around 10 pips of this 2/3 of full size position and now I gained like 30 more. Any retracement could take 20 easily off and I didn't see short term reward for it, as it happened later. Also this is healthy gain for me and now I'm thinking of backing off for a day in a spirit of focus on monthly plan. Trades were with 1/3 size in the end +24 full size pips.

April 2009. results

-10 pips
-1.7 %


I was never positive in this month. From the start I flew in -100 pips drawdown and then I climbed back to -10 full size pips where I ended.