Thursday, August 28, 2008

Next step

I'm now telling myself: "I told you so". It's all easy in hindsight but sometimes swing trading understanding how things are developing are important and it's a shame not to use it. My problem is that with too many ideas sometimes it's hard to distinguish which one is worth pursuing. Also I'm so soft on scalping profits and immediate gratification that I hardly ever stay with the trade. I'm writing this post just to address that so some day I will stay with some good trades and ideas.
Today on my last trade I wanted to book a profit because until that trade I was only down or flat for the whole day. So idea of finally 13 pips was great. But after pretty much bad and random reversal looking entry I was looking for proof that that trade will work. I was close to being stopped out on that spike and was saved by 2 pips. After that it just looked to me that 4800 level is rejected and if there is no force for up market will fall. So i was with that conviction in that trade 20 more minutes but didn't want to risk my 13 pips when I had them. I always have some explanation why I exit prematurely. Today it's because I was down and flat after so many trades.
Now when I look a chart I can only regret. It's true that I'm scalper and that many times I got nothing when I try to stay but I think that is also a skill, staying. I need to develop that. I can't do it now.
I remember how it was for me impossible to trade in the direction of the trend. Some of you who are with me from the start of this blog and before can remember. I was just picking tops and bottoms, never trading in the main direction. So if I can now easily trade the trend and break out than one day staying power will also be one of my skills.



Yes you are totally right, it is a skill that will develop over time. The thing is, that skill will develop in tandem with your belief that anything can happen. The very reason we use stops is because we recognize that price can move ridiculously far against us, that is the ONLY reason we truly use stops. All things being equal, our ability to hold winners increases with our realization that price can also move ridiculously far in our FAVOR. The funny thing is, there is a random distribution of wins and losses and at varying degrees of pips. If we follow one method strictly, we will see the true distribution of that method in the shortest amount of time. Changing the method will change the distribution, but that is not always a bad thing, as some traders have an intuitive link to the markets that allows them to adapt to market conditions better than any one system can manage.

Supposing your trade direction is 50-50 and 20 pips is farther away than your average winner, you will more often than not win. since 30-40 pips is farther than your stop, you will statistically get stopped more than you hit a 30-40 pip winner. So, you should expect to make 30-40 pip wins occasionally but obviously less frequently than your average winner.

Just try to keep re-enforcing your belief that anything can happen... thats actually what losses are supposed to teach us ;))

FX said...

Great comment orion.