Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Overconfidence

First trade in eur/usd I faded the breakdown because it just didn't seem right speed for it. First I wanted to go short but I changed my mind and went long. I added position in gbp/usd as add on direction but it immediately went against me. Eur was just sitting there. So when I had chance I just got out because gbp/usd came back.

Then there was 10:30 time for gbp news and I decided to short eur/usd because it was now 45 minutes and it didn't move 10 pips. So I thought that now would be good time for bears to push it down. I exit it little prematurely.

Next was long eur/usd trade and immediately add long gbp/usd because it nicely rebounded after sell of from 10:30 news so I thought that it will break fast through previous high. It just stop. Eur/usd was gaining little but gbp nothing. I knew that something is bad. I had +6 on eur and -6 on gbp when I take out eur/usd trade. There I made big mistake. I didn't trust the tape. I should get out of gbp/usd also or even reverse it. I let it go against me more than 20 pips. That was overconfidence like I can't lose. Like it will reverse back just to make me profit.
Than I said ok let's reverse. I did and it was just before it stop again. So it really tricked me well. I averaged but that wasn't wise. I didn't gain anything but bigger risk. I took small loser. Now I was from 7 pips up for the day down 7 pips for the day. Just because stubbornest and overconfidence.
At 11:30 there was again important gbp news. Funny Oanda didn't widen the spread. I don't know why, they do mistakes also. Usually spread for gbp/usd at news time is 20, so totally big for minute or two. So I took advantage of that and started to trade in the direction of the movements. It started to bounce from 400 level so I got out. It went than 20 pips down and I was angry. Than after another bounce it started to fall again. Gbp/usd is pretty much directional in fast market so I took another chance. I got out because of big profit just at the low.

I was in the end super aggressive because of the loss for the day. It would be better that I didn't made mistake with gbp/usd in first place and just took little loss. There wouldn't be extra risk exposure.

So now +9 full size pips for the day and I'm out.





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