February 2009. results

+190 pips

+12%

Childish trading continued this month. Results doesn't mean a thing when I swing -25% in a day. That can't be called trading.

I'm out of the ideas

After good start and nice little trade that gave me 10 pips I got stuck in eur/usd trade that started chain reaction. I "couldn't" stop myself out. So I went long gbp/usd because eur/usd was going up and I was thinking that gbp/usd will be faster. That didn't work. I somehow exit eur/usd for -15 pips loss but now I was negative in gbp/usd. What will I do? I will average. After first I averaged with double size. I close all that at -45 pips x 4 positions = -180 pips. I close it just so I could start trading gbp/jpy which is faster!!??
Well I opened 4X position long just two minutes before big fall came. My first thought was "Why I didn't wait to see in which direction market will go?" I was just helpless in that trade watching it fall 70 pips against me. I had open loss of -330 full size pips, so about -500 pips for a day or 26% from where I start my day. It did recovered and I exit it at just -8 pips x4. Now I was -220 pips for the day. I had one more trade with 4x size in which I recovered 100 pips.

So end of day at -120 pips. It's nothing compared with -500 pips or who knows how much more.

This is just report of the facts. My idea of seamless transition to good trading fall apart miserably. I don't know what to do. If I "can't" take stops how will I trade? How can I after 10 pips win try to avoid small loss of -10, -20 or -30 pips and end up in -500 pips loss? This is like SF movie.

Different kind of trading

Well at least partially.
1. Small scalp, didn't get best price for shorting the range 6 pips 0.3R
2. Loss. Well I couldn't believe that I pull the trigger on the loss. -11 pips -0.55R. I could get 7 pips on that trade but I thought that it would go more up. That's why I leave it so much against me after missing profit. I wanted to be long and just waited when market will start going up.
3. Minute later I get in again long 3 pips above previous exit. Well now I really didn't want to get shaken out. It was close, but that drop was because some eur/cross action and I believed that it could snap back. If it continued to go down I would take a loss.
4. I averaged long on that discount price with idea that if I'm wrong will get stopped out at break of low.
6, 13 pips 0.3, 0.65 R
I got out when I recovered previous loss and got small profit above that. Too bad because run up was quite funny in straight slow line.

5. That straight slow line was reason for me to try to fade previous high. Bad thing that I wasn't so disciplined so I didn't exit immediately. I left it run against me feeling up what will happen. The fact was that it was eur/cross strength and other pairs didn't fly against usd. Somehow I decided that below 830 could be high and I opened 6th trade again with 5 pips stop, averaging again. It worked.
-2, 12 pips -0.1, 0.6 R

I want to get used to trading with small stops, between 5 - 20 pips, usually around 10. This is place of my competence and I should stay in it. Only thing about today that I don't like is that 5th trade where I let it go against me almost 20 pips. I should have taken a loss after 5 pips when my fade the high idea proved wrong.
For those averaging trades I had separate exit orders and I intended to use them, so that is ok.

Day 22 pips, 1.1R

Safe trading

Two small scalps in a way I like them the most, fast breakout and fast profit. Fast out with whatever I have.

Last few days I was thinking about my trading and all, what I want, what I don't want. We will see where thinking got me when I face my next stop loss. It's too early to talk about anything until then. Definitely I don't like idea of risks that I took lately. I guess that I will try to be more defensive. I made a plan few weeks ago about 5R monthly target. This month with my insane trading I'm at 14.5R. I don't need that profit if it's accompanied with insanity.

11, 5 pips
0.55, 0.25 R
today 16 pips, 0.8R

Nonsense

I started cautiously with smaller size position with idea that yesterday low below 560 will be broken. Pure greed got me in with another position, but it reversed, I came too early with add on.
Then I decided that I will short gbp/usd which bounced strongly from it's low with even smaller position (1/2 size). I averaged that trade also and got out of two of them with small profit.
Eur/usd wasn't working. It wasn't in a kind of state that I would reverse so I just let it build against me. I had small gbp/usd trade after news that I didn't cut when it reversed downside break down.
Eur/usd was just hanging and then it broke to the upside. Unfortunately I wasn't prepared for that and I didn't get out, or reversed but started heavy averaging game. I add two more position above 600 and later I averaged with same size like all before. So I started with one position and now I was 8 positions short. I was at like -9R at some point.
It did reverse and I close it all for the +1.9R for a day.

Moral of the story is that I just can't trade successfully on this way. I don't know how to handle it all. I'm simple scalp in and out guy and when I got tide up in this kind of situation I'm on quick road to lose 10-20%.
If I didn't add on position because of greed probably all would be different. But this is not an answer. This is nonsense and I don't want to trade like this.


eur -23, -26, 13, 14, 24(x4) pips
-0.76, -0.86, 0.43, 0.46, 3.2 R
gbp -12, 22, -35 pips
-0.3, 0.55, -0.87 R
day 38 full size pips 1.9R

One more trade today

I couldn't resist. I just wanted to try this short. Dollar wasn't so cooperative so I didn't want to stay more. Excuses. It was more of a swing trade with smaller size based on fading 5min chart. All that upside after 12:00 was made buy eur/gbp fall.

17pips, 0.42R

today 1.1R

Mixing time frames

First two scalps than attempt at break down. Near was European news so I thought that it can't go far against me when it start to go up. I was ready to take loss or reverse or something when I see reaction to the news. My thinking was that downside is least resistance but that doesn't erase the fact that when I have scalp profit I take it, when I have loss I jump on higher time frames, or that trade in eur/usd was -3R against me at the top.
News was better then expected. I was thinking reversing long but it somehow after initial spike didn't show me that would be good idea. Than I decided to average but not in eur/usd but gbp/usd which moved far away to yesterday highs on it's good news and eur good news. That averaging worked to some extent.
Last was short in gbp/usd with half size, half risk so I can bread easily. That worked nice.

When I look at chart I can see that my eur/usd short first bounced against me, I held which is ok. Then it went my way, made lower low and after that point i didn't want to let it go. I was too much certain that it will go down. I was wrong but didn't want to admit or let it go.

eur/usd
8, 4, -29 pips
0.4, 0.2, -1.45 R

gbp/usd
21, 19 pips
1.05, 0.48 R

day 13 pips, 0.65R

Thoughts

I've been thinking about my trading lately and what to change so I could have more reasonable trading sessions. First of all I started to use R system so it would be best to be aware where I stand with it cumulative for the month. Problem each day is that I start from the zero and then I'm reluctant to take the loss. I think that I should start from cumulative R for that month so a loss will lover it slightly but will not put me in negative territory. This is all mind tweaking thing, nothing new. Also about that averaging habit of mine. I should look more carefully in each trade where is the point of invalidation of my view and where is the point that I will cut my loss. If it's not 20 as I usually put for R I should have smaller size for start of that trade. There is nothing wrong to average a losing trade if I think that my overall idea is still correct or that I have spike against me that I can use to make bigger position if I still believe in it. I have to commit that I will exit my losing trade at 1R, it's variable, it can be 1.2, 1.3 R no problem, but not letting it run against me just because I don't want to have a loss.
For example I have a stop of 30 pips on a short trade and it goes against me 22 pips and now I believe that it will go down. I average with the same size trade. That doesn't mean that I will let that second trade go against me also 30 pips because it would be -50 from my original entry and for my style I'm then most definitely wrong. But if it goes against me I got to look to exit first trade around 1R or 30 pips. Stop taking those two trades as one. Exit first and then decide will I exit second at the same place or what. Second is then at -10 pips let's say and if I don't believe it is going my way exit it also and I lose around 1.3R on those two averaging trades together. That is acceptable. If I'm right and I'm right enough times that I'm coming back to averaging again and again I have now two positions that can give me fast b/e or 1R or maybe more.

With this tweaks if they will work for me I wouldn't have a problem of taking a loss because I don't look at day session any more and is it positive or negative but whole month. Second I will be reasonable with averaging when I do it. If you can't win against an enemy make him your friend. That way I would avoid mindless risks and stressful emotions. Until now with this averaging thing I just didn't have exit strategy except to average down until it goes back enough which is as stupid as it gets.

Real me

You want to see real me that I'm ashamed off. Trading in the worst kind, pure basic human psychology of fear and greed. This is it.
Funny how after fear of a loss kick in fear of missing profit. So first fear drive me in a loss where I don't get out and average. Second fear show it's face when I'm in a profit with big position. No win situation.

I had some reasons for the trades. First off that short was because eur/usd touched downside of triangle on big t/f. So I bet on test of that again. It went deep against me I averaged when it came to previous lows. I didn't understand how it can go 50 pips after such a downtrend so easily. Then it started to go my way but now I didn't know what to think. I took profit just for the sake of profit.
Then I got idea that it all look so orchestrated because other pairs didn't move. Eur was crushed in eur/chf and eur/gbp. It was like someone is pushing to make break out of that triangle just to get reaction on that. So I now went long because it looked bogus. Well it break down I still didn't believe it because other pairs were not dramatic at all. Just eur/usd. Averaging game begin again and with it strong emotions. This emotions are so strong and I was wondering why. I'm risking here some dollars and feel fear like I'm at war and death is near and imminent. Also funny thing is that I'm feeling so hard emotions and I don't want to quit. I don't want to get out on b/e for the day. NO, I want profit as reimbursement for all that pain. It's all in vain if I don't get it. I'm also thinking that there are nicer way to make money, what am I some kind of masochist when I'm choosing this.

And while I write this all that idea of bogus push is validated. Eur/usd is trading 40 pips above my exit and back in the range. Well I guess that for this kind of ideas which are basically swing trades I can't trade with this kind of leverage and stop loss points. Greed is the reason for it because it doesn't look interesting enough if I put the trades of proper size that I'm comfortable with the risk if I average so many times. This is just wandering, mixing styles, ideas.
Also when I'm deep down in a loss I swear to myself that this time I will hold it if it goes my way, that it will pay off. I never do.

This is real chronicle of emotional roller coaster that trading gives to amateur trader.


0|27, -9|11|28 pips
0|1.35, -045|0.55||1.4 R

57 pips, 2.85 R

Fading

First trade today I decided to fade situation that I usually use as a trigger for a break out and trend continuation trade. The thing is that there was sharp selloff during the night and this is bounce back. So I guess that my gut feel told me to do it so. It was correct 19 pips 0.95R. Interesting thing was that I clicked on exit and platform freeze and was "communicating with server" for 10-15 seconds. Then it gave me 4-5 pips better price than I originally clicked.

Second trade, I was looking at that 5min chart and wanted to short a spike to up trendline if it happens, like it happened before. It stop earlier and I guess I wanted little more drama so I shorted. I heavily base my decisions on all other pairs when I trade one. So I was looking at usd/chf and eur/jpy at that time. Usd/chf was bouncing but eur/usd didn't follow that scenario. I hate when there is no correlation when usually there is one. So eur was strong on it's own. It was messing with previous high in eur/jpy so I just didn't want to get out of that trade in a loss. Then when it came to make new high and on other fronts things were not so rosy I unpopularly averaged. Yes, I know, it's no good but I did it again. I had in my head everything that was said yesterday in the comment section. I just wanted to do it. Bad thing about averaging is losing control and having no exit strategy. Maybe I should just trade my first trade of the day and close it like before. In beginning of trading day I'm not inclined to gamble like later. Later when I have previous profit I just don't want to give it back and that is not good reasoning. That's the facts.

19, 2|16 pips
0.95, 0.1|0.8 R

37 pips, 1.85 R

Orionmachine's videos

I just enjoyed watching Orionmachine's video about an hour long separated in six 10min clips on youtube. In it he in detailed fashion explains his method of trading, plus he is going over this years trades, day by day. It is really the thing why I start this blog over 2 years ago, to share how I trade. Very detailed, with charts, entries and exits. I guess this video blogging is hitting more on that target. His method is interesting. Very short term even for my taste. I can't react and think clearly in such a speed as he can. It's not clear cut black box system because there is a lot's of discretionary decisions to be made, so it's not a system but a method.

I've put video's here on the blog to take sneak peak at them, but you got to watch them in HD on full screen to really see the charts.

He has youtube channel. Quite an exhibitionist kind if I may say, you can see his whole family there. I like the guy, he's been helping me a lot with his comments here and I always appreciate his trading knowledge. The main thing is that he is confident in his trading and that is closed circle. Confidence gives good results, good results give confidence.

Negative impact of excitement in trading

My first trade in the day was breakout attempt in gbp/usd in continuation of uptrend. Well I didn't get it as expected. I stayed with the trade through retracement and after a while price continued to go up. I didn't take 15 pips when I had them, my target was breakout of 880 maybe 900. I took profit because with slow uptrend I didn't know what to expect and I hit more than 1R. 24 pips, 1.2R

Now I was happy with my profit and 30min later price started to go up. I rushed in, and got 17 more pips 0.85R. That's where excitement kicked in. I wanted moooooooore. So after 15 pips jump I get in again long angry because I didn't stay in that trade. Than took quick loss of 6 pips 0.3R. Than again long. I didn't got out on a spike but I stayed, missing 15 pips profit and let myself in 10 pips loss. I exit that trade in profit after 15 minutes but only 11 pips. When price agin moved to new high I again entered long, chasing. That was already deep emotional trading when I want only profit and don't want to take a loss. I let that trade against me almost 50 pips, 2.5R. I didn't want to take a loss, denial of reality. I started averaging and got out little bit above b/e for that set of trades. Well I would stay more if it didn't pause.
In the end 59 pips or 3R today with last eur/usd trade.

24, 17, -6, 11, -20|10|17 (averaging) pips
1.2, 0.85, -0.3, 0.55, -1|0.5|0.85 R




While I was writing this I had chaser trade in eur/usd for 6 pips 0.3R

Ugly session

My bad side got to come out after all praises yesterday.

It started ok, but I was just making mistakes and bad choices. I got out from first trade just before it started to go in my direction. Than I took small scalp. Than again on my short I got out just before it started to fall down. Again small scalp. I guess I got angry about the situation.
-2, +4, -1, +1 pips
On second chart there is trade that in the end gave me all profit for the day
+20 pips +1R


Second part of trading was in euro as bad as it can be with averaging and all. Check next charts.





-12, -30|-23 (averaging), +7, +10|+5 (averaging) pips

-0.6, -1.5|-1.1 (aver), +0.7, +0.5|+0.25 (aver) R

Thick blue line represent double size trade at the place where I reversed big loss from two averaging trades. Closed with a profit and then shorted two times at the top.


Second part again big loss on averaging, reverse with double size and then add on with double size. So that last part I was long 4X usual amount !!!!!!!!???? It didn't want to go in strong breakout and I got out with b/e for the day. After I made that last gbp/usd trade that gave me profit.

-22|-11, +23|+11 pips
-1.1|-0.55, +2.3| +1.1 R

My loss in eur/usd in cumulative R went like this:
-0.6 R
-3.2 R
-2.5 R
-1.75 R
-3.4 R
0 R

at the end +1 R, +20 pips

Battlefield

Lot's of scalp trades. I would like to pinpoint second and third. On second I immediately felt trapped hitting short at the bottom. So I exit it and reversed direction because of that feeling, if I felt it everybody in my position did also, so I ride on their covering.

5, -5, 7, 0, -1, 3, 9, 6, pips
or
0.25, -0.25, 0.35, 0, 0, 0.15, 0.45, 0.3 R


24 pips, 1.2R

Two trades today

First in eur/usd after broken 8.00am low time was for push through low below that one. I was angry because I didn't take 8 pips after 1min, so I took quickly profit when I had it again.
12 pips 0.6R.

In gbp/usd I missed nice short opportunity at 4200. Trade was when price started to fall below morning low. I was looking for surge down but I didn't get it.
6pips 0.3R

Today 18 pips 0.9R