Sunday, April 29, 2012

Longer term trades

First trade short of aud/usd after negative fundamental news. It's not ideal to open such trade pretty much late. I gave it big stop of 77 pips. Target was the same.  Three open trades were just because I was experimenting with sizing in relationship to stop. First stop was 100 pips, when I changed stop I took bigger size for a trade. Yellow mark is average.
That trade didn't really work from the start. I had nice push after being first in negative but then it reversed. I'm thinking that on such trades that from start don't really go in my direction I should take profit if later given in size that was previous negative move. But it's all fluid, I really don't know is that optimal. I didn't touch this trade, or reevaluate it. I just left it to do whatever. Maybe some trade management would be better to exit with smaller loss then full R.

Entry short immediately after the news, move before the trade was instant. Support held and it moved slowly toward the stop. I wouldn't do much different in this trade. I think that probability was more for down side. Stop and target were 100 pips. Maybe stop should have been lower because if it goes back to 160 resistance it's hardly weak. Maybe in this case stop of 70 and target 70-100.

Third trade short in eur/gbp.This trade was opened around the same time as previous short in gbp/usd. I didn't believe that previous down break in eur/gbp will so easily fail on gbp weakens. So I shorted with idea that it's now top of the range. It worked that way. When I checked that trade next day I found it not taking my take profit for just one pip, so I closed.

Fourth trade short eur/usd after Spain downgrade. I was early in the move. Two trades because I found out that I don't need 100 pips stop to invalidate my idea of down side. So I doubled the position because I only needed 50 pips R. At first I set up things that one take profit is at 1R and second at 2R. Later after move went in my direction I moved my stop down and widen the take profit. So for first trade it was at 3155 and move only went to 3160. It moved exactly 1R. After it rushed bit by bit back up (I was by the screen scalping) I was mad because of my greed. If I had 1R target all would be peachy. I didn't believe that it was full reversal, I expected some resistance at some point.
Basically it's very hard for me to decide what to do with the trade in between my stop and target. On smaller time frames it's different story from minute to minute and I can't judge clearly.
So those were my longer time trades. I don't know will I continue with it. This is only testing and treading water. It's interesting but I feel little bit new and clueless.


TST said...

I'm not a forex trader , but based on your LF chart, the only valid set up is wedge breakout at the direction of ema..iT is about 20% of the time, but the pips is very nice. This setup also shown in your 1min chart but about 15% of the time.

Sorry, not trying to coach you :)

To compare it with CL oil, the wedge is rare in CL in LF

FX said...

Those trades weren't opened based on technical setups except eur/gbp trade. I don't trade that much based on setups so my thinking is different. I don't question that kind of trading, but don't do it in a sense how for example equity traders trade based on setups.

PRD trader said...

all traders go through same phases,some become profitable ealier ,some later and some will never be trader as they will quit.In my trading career i realizer few thing that changed my life forever
1.How easy it is if you know how to trade,easy system works the best.when i was struggling,it was the most difficlt job in the world but i couldn't quit.
2.It is most profitble business in the world,it just take some time to learn it.
3.Yes long time period bring
more money than shorter time frame,i went throug all time frame and 4h is the best,very few loses.
4.Pre determined setup with target and stop.

FX said...

PRD thank you on you're for me uplifting post.
I would like to ask you about 4h time frame what is your usual range in pips that you risk on those trades and what multiple of R is your usual predetermined target?

PRD trader said...

Hi fX,it usually depends on the pair and s/r level,usually 30-70 pip risk and reward as limit 2R but if i am on the computer ,i set alert on target ,that i can extend my target on the weak market.If there is no s/r level to adjust my stop than i will go with fixed pip size.