Wednesday, March 20, 2013

+18 pips
- all half size trades
- initial news spike in gbp/usd wasn't convincing so I exit it quickly





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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello FX, I have been reading your blog for years. I wanted to say that I appreciate your consistency in posting. After so long, its rare to see someone still around and posting that has not quite gotten a hold of their trading yet. I appreciate that about you.

I am compelled to ask many questions with just about every post you make, but rarely have time.

In terms of today's trading I wanted to ask you:

1. when you put on your news trade today, did you have a predefined stop?

2. if you did have a predefined risk, why did you not accept that risk to find out if your trade was going to make it?

I very much understand using a time stop to exit as I just used one yesterday, but it seems to me you were more afraid of losing what you already had than being ok with the risk to find out if you were right. Each trade we take is supposed to be small enough that there is no emotion involved and be thought of as the cost of making ourselves available for profitability.

3. once price continued, what kept you from re-entering?

4. @your 10:45 time you make those two very small trades. What went through your mind with those, and also the following trade that you held for 10 minutes. What was your risk on that and your exit plan?

I love trading the news but rarely get the time, so every time I see you trade it it gives me something interesting to look at.

5. Do you ever consider the color of the daily bar when you trade? (ex: only trade long if daily bar is green, or short if it is red)

6. Do you consider that the smaller time frames that you look at (1 min and sub 1 min) hold less validity (for lack of a better word) than a 5 minute candle?

I notice that you miss out on a frequent amount of good moves, or join them late, because they were support or resistance breaks that you did not attempt to trade in the first place.

7. why do you not trade breakouts?

March 20, 2013 at 4:27 PM
FX said...

Hi,
thanks for following my blog for so long and on your questions that I will gladly answer.

1. Yes, on my news trades I put 20 pips stop on both long or short orders.
2. In general I trade discretionary before the trade and after the trade so I don't let trades go to my stop or breakeven if I decide it like that based on my interpretation of market movements while in trade.
Especially on those news trades where I can't really know is 20 pips that I risked realistic goal to wait for full R. For me it's far more psychologically damaging to get full stop then to cut my gain short.
3. I really wasn't expecting it to continue based on hesitation on those initial seconds. It's just that I read market that way in that situation, it doesn't mean that my reading was correct. Secondly spread was bigger then 4 pips and I wasn't alert or ready to trade it after my news trade, on which I was focused. So I didn't really reset my thoughts.
4.market slowed down and I was able to concentrate on what to do next. I was partially angry because I didn't take part in that move up that just finished so that was part of the reason why I entered those trades, to scalp some of the move if there was any more.
Trade after that my plan was to average down if it goes to around -20 pips. Plan was to exit it around previous high alone or with average in trade, or leave it for initial up thrust if there would be any with breaking out of the previous high. So yes, I was prepared for more risk based on idea that it will test high again. I would probably exit both trades at -1 to -10 pips after second entry if my idea didn't work.
5. No, I never base my decisions in
scalping based on trend of higher time frames. As my experience goes for sub 1min chart scalping it doesn't really matter. Sometimes it's easier to scalp counter trend then with the trend.
6.They absolutely do hold less validity in general, but for my specific psychological mind set it doesn't matter because I don't know how to read higher time frames correctly. Every time I try to read them I get far more false ideas then on those hit and run scalps. Add to that my psychological inability to hold trades for longer times and sit through normal retracements I just don't bother.
Many moves I miss because something doesn't feel right, or I'm not convinced, or it's too scary to enter at that price for some reason. It's on many times wrong read of situation but I have many more ideas when to trade and I don't trade and it ends like good decision in retrospect.
7. I really like to trade breakouts but last couple of years market is very choppy on that small time frame that I use so it's harder then before.

As you said I trade for years and didn't get hold of it yet. I just don't want to quit, even when I have prolonged pause I come back. I try to manage myself and my trading shortcomings as best as I can, and trade around them. So my trading can look counter intuitive but it's best I can do right now.

In the end I would like to add on your thoughts
"but it seems to me you were more afraid of losing what you already had than being ok with the risk to find out if you were right. Each trade we take is supposed to be small enough that there is no emotion involved and be thought of as the cost of making ourselves available for profitability"

I'm always afraid of losing and I didn't make that leap to trading to win vs. trading not to lose. Also I have emotions involved however small position is. It doesn't mean that I don't agree with your opinion but my reality is different then my opinion.

March 20, 2013 at 5:55 PM
Anonymous said...

I understand.

Do you presently take steps to actively grow as a trader and become less emotional? If so what are they?

I ask this because in reading over your posts, you have mostly seemed to be very non-committed in your approach to things.

Its understandable as a beginning trader, that if something does not work out, you change what you are doing, but you still do this with your trading.

I do not mean to be rude at all, but do you recognize that you sway your opinions on the profit and loss of your trades?

March 20, 2013 at 7:32 PM
FX said...

Yes in a way that I'm actively choosing to trade more of what works for me. For example I try to focus on small trades with usual risk of 6 pips and reward in 4-10 pips range. On those trades I'm least emotional. There are many trades that I still do and they are not best for me, like today's fourth trade or eur/jpy trading at Sunday open. Those trades have very much potential to unbalance me emotionally in negative way. Make me take the risk which I'm not consciously ready to accept before the trade.
Also I try to ignore market potential of any particular day and focus on my small scalps to keep mind balanced.
Nothing other then that.

I really don't see myself changing much of my approach. I'm still at discretionary scalping and try to develop it. It's how I see things. I'm very interested in other point of view that you may have.

Also I don't recognize that I sway my opinion on the profit and loss. You know we are always the most short sighted about our self.

March 20, 2013 at 9:28 PM

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