Monday

I fall into mine own trap on my second trade. I guessed that up potential is limited and had nice first scalp. Then I got suckered in long. Big position with averaging and I failed to take small profit or b/e that I had. After I reversed short I got instant 10 pips run against me, then very hard move lower. I was positive for a day after exit but foolishly I didn't want to quit. So I had disastrous trading in eur/usd with four positions later. Reversal trade of same size cut my loss to manageable one.
All in all not well. After I surpassed level from big loss at the beginning of the month I again have tendency for big size. Then bigger size made very bad day. Now I average non stop and ride too big positions. I need to cool down with it.
Also when I trade like this I miss on opportunities for scalping. Eur/usd had beautiful trend and I missed all tied in gbp/usd.

-18 pips

Next step

I'm now telling myself: "I told you so". It's all easy in hindsight but sometimes swing trading understanding how things are developing are important and it's a shame not to use it. My problem is that with too many ideas sometimes it's hard to distinguish which one is worth pursuing. Also I'm so soft on scalping profits and immediate gratification that I hardly ever stay with the trade. I'm writing this post just to address that so some day I will stay with some good trades and ideas.
Today on my last trade I wanted to book a profit because until that trade I was only down or flat for the whole day. So idea of finally 13 pips was great. But after pretty much bad and random reversal looking entry I was looking for proof that that trade will work. I was close to being stopped out on that spike and was saved by 2 pips. After that it just looked to me that 4800 level is rejected and if there is no force for up market will fall. So i was with that conviction in that trade 20 more minutes but didn't want to risk my 13 pips when I had them. I always have some explanation why I exit prematurely. Today it's because I was down and flat after so many trades.
Now when I look a chart I can only regret. It's true that I'm scalper and that many times I got nothing when I try to stay but I think that is also a skill, staying. I need to develop that. I can't do it now.
I remember how it was for me impossible to trade in the direction of the trend. Some of you who are with me from the start of this blog and before can remember. I was just picking tops and bottoms, never trading in the main direction. So if I can now easily trade the trend and break out than one day staying power will also be one of my skills.

I didn't have the nerve to hang in there

I expected exactly what happened but it was to slow for me in the start. I didn't want to lose profits and got out for +28 pips.
If I only stayed in for another leg up it would be great. If I...
I still have much to learn. It's so easy to sit in a loser versus to sit in the winner.







The thing is that only after the 10.30 news pair made big move up. It was only 10 pips above my exit at that time.

Forex trading 10/15/07

I really like this new time frame 1min is to slow for some stuff. Until I see it on 1min chart it's late for acting. It 's just the way I'm comfortable to trade.

First quick in and out of gbp/usd for +10 pips




I was expecting that usd/cad will bounce back from that near 0.9700 level but it didn't. because of that I wasn't in the mood for staying longer in the trades. It could run down through 0.9700 in a second for 30 pips or something so better not to hang around.

In the end it didn't penetrate 9700 but didn't go very far either. It would be great to pick up that other long pips but it's ok with

+4 & +5 pips on my trades





That first trade in gbp/usd turned out to be shake down before uptrend. It looked at the moment like resistance 370 was holding and that downtrend will start. When something like that happens, fast unexpected fall, than you start looking for shorts. If you were looking long it's gone now, your mind is thinking differently now. Every uptick looks like just reaction and you just wait when will fall continue. It's than late when you realize, look there is uptrend suddenly.

Hindsight learning 6

Fibonacci retracement tests

Hindsight learning 5

Fast b/o always give enough candles to get some scalps in the direction of b/o, even when it's moved far from b/o. Than it's not false and fading the move is not good choice.

Very nice technical action.





After last test of down side of channel gbp/usd broke it in next 3 minutes. Than there was some consolidation below channel and not even attempt to get back in. Than very fast melt down.

Hindsight learning 4

Bottom reversal.
Strong downtrend from the day before resumed in the morning. Big reversal candle is clear indication of possible change of direction. Long side is probably safer now.




550 level is pivotal, up from it is long, down is short.



Nice low risk entry at breakout after 550 consolidation if there is no long entry before.


Maybe reversal on daily time frame.

Hindsight learning 3

Firm close above 480 represent channel breakout and nice signal to go long.



Morning intraday action is showing upside tendency. Candles are above ma consolidating. Break out above 460 have some resistance but it's just reaction. Bull side is confirmed on 15min time frame.
480 breakout is taking profits for some scalping oriented traders because resistance is here. But up potential is not vain so upper time frames take over and uptrend is prolonged through the day.

Hindsight learning 2

Above 166.10 we have real breakout in the uptrend after long consolidation. If it does not fail higher prices are probable.

Big breakout candle is not threatened in any way. Buy dips to be on safer side no matter if you are scalping, day trading, position trading.


New high failure after consolidation. If you want to scalp in short direction now is your chance.

Hindsight learning

After 8 am it's strongly up relating to previous day range. So the power is up, you should look for possibility of up trend day.



There is strong resistance, beware maybe this is reversal and trend up is over, now you can make money by shorting.


After consolidation there was aggressive pullback that is halted and price is back in the range. Any breakout from the small range up or down can indicate future price direction.


We now definitely have double top, direction is down get as many pips as you can. But beware it's Friday late afternoon price action can be violent in any direction especially if it started to move so fast as is moving now down.



Fast reversal is getting in trouble. There is buying going on indicated by the long wicks. Path of least resistance is up.

Trendline break

Drawing a trendline and plan to short it on a break in this example is too fast for scalping. It could only be worth on 5min t/f as some kind of swing trade position.
No time for a reaction and good entry.

04/10/07

I'm frustrated with second trade that I got out so early. I was scared by euro going down in same time so I run for exit. +8Worse thing is that I didn't recognize or used upside bias that was in play for few hours.

reminder

charts

So precise.